After last week’s rally in the AUDUSD stalled at an old upward sloping trend line resistance, the pair has come under renewed selling pressure to start the week.Today’s price action is reinforcing the bearish shift, with the pair moving further below the trend line and now eyeing key downside support levels.
Initial focus is on the 100-bar (blue line) and 200-bar (green line) moving averages on the 4-hour chart, currently at 0.6533 and 0.6511, respectively (and both rising). A break and hold below these levels would be an important step toward a deeper decline. Absent that, buyers still retain some control, even as price softens from the highs.
Adding to the technical importance, the 100-bar MA also aligns with the low of a swing area between 0.6535 and 0.6556 (see red circles and yellow shaded zone). This area represents a key decision point for the market.
Below that, the next major target is 0.65096, which marks the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June low. A break below would likely accelerate bearish momentum, exposing the 50% midpoint and last week’s low near 0.64823 (a dual support target for sellers).
Although the AUDUSD pair is lower over recent sessions, sellers still have work to do to take control from the buyers. A move below both the swing area low at 0.6535 and the rising 100-bar MA at 0.6533 would shift the bias more firmly into bearish territory, giving sellers increased control. Absent that, and the sellers are not winning
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