The USDCHF hit its highest since Aug 1 on Monday to start the new week, then reversed hard on Tuesday, slicing below the 100- and 200-hour MAs (blue and green lines) and extending through the 50% retracement at 0.80405 into a June swing zone at 0.8017–0.80233. Buyers defended that area, forcing a rebound back above the 100/200-hour MAs before momentum faded into the close.
Today, price failed to hold above the moving averages and rolled over again. U.S. retail sales headlines sparked a pop toward those MAs, but sellers re-emerged and pushed the pair lower. The USDCHF has rotated back toward session lows near 0.8048.
Bias: Below the 100/200-hour MAs (~0.8075), the short-term bias favors sellers. A reclaim and hold above 0.8075 would flip the intraday/short term tone back to buyers.
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What strengthens the bear case: A break below 0.80405 (50%) followed by 0.80233 → 0.8017 (swing area) would add to downside momentum into next week.
Key levels (summary):
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Resistance: 0.8075 area (100- & 200-hour MAs) — bullish only on a sustained break/hold above.
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Support 1: 0.80405 (50% retracement).
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Support 2: 0.80233–0.8017 (multi-touch swing zone).
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Near-term bias: Bearish below 0.8075; shifts bullish above.
The video above outlines all the key technical levels in shows and explains why.
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