The USDCAD is on track for its sixth consecutive day of gains, with the rally lifting the pair from the July 23 low of 1.3575 to today’s high of 1.3853—a move of approximately 278 pips. Yesterday, the pair broke out of a two-month consolidation range with a decisive move above the June high at 1.37955, and also pushed through the 100-day moving average at 1.38233.
Today, the price briefly dipped below that moving average to a session low of 1.3813, but quickly recovered and has held above the 100-day MA since. During the North American session, a retest brought the price down to 1.38268, just above the moving average, and it has bounced higher from there—suggesting buyers are defending this support level.
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As long as the pair holds above the 100-day moving average at 1.38233, bullish control remains intact, and buyers will gain confidence. Yesterday’s close at 1.38292 also marks an intraday support zone. If price breaks back below these levels, focus will shift to the former range ceiling and June high at 1.37955. A move back inside the old consolidation range—the “Red Box” on the chart—would weaken the breakout narrative.
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