The USDCAD is pushing higher, entering a key swing area between 1.3891 and 1.3904. A break above this zone would open the door toward the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 4 high at 1.39229—a critical level, since reclaiming the 38.2% retracement is the minimum threshold for buyers to prove they are regaining control after a strong downtrend. The price decline from the March 4 high was trend like.
Recent price action has been constructive. The pair moved back above both the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart (1.37966 and 1.3742), as well as the 100-day moving average at 1.3769. On Tuesday, it also cleared a prior swing area between 1.3812 and 1.38215, further confirming upside momentum.
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On the hourly chart, Monday’s dip to the weeks lows took the price briefly below the 100-hour moving average (1.3838) but that break quickly failed, giving buyers confidence to push higher. The pair then broke above the August 1 high at 1.38785, with the rally continuing into today.
For intraday traders, close risk sits at 1.3875 (the August 1 high), while more conservative risk is against the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3838. The buyers continue to step higher, and momentum stays with them as long as these support levels hold.
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