Fundamental
Overview
Gold continues to edge
higher since the NFP-induced rally on Friday. The dovish repricing in interest
rates expectations gave the precious metal a boost and now we are just going up
by inertia until the next catalyst.
The next key catalysts will
be the US Jobless Claims tomorrow and the US CPI next week. The NFP was softer
than expected but it wasn’t that bad as one might think by just looking at the
reaction in the markets.
Jobless claims could
alleviate concerns around the labour market, while the CPI could bring more
uncertainty on the market pricing in case we get hot data.
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In the bigger picture, gold
should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid
Fed easing. But hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations will likely
keep on triggering corrections in the short term.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to edge higher towards the key resistance
around the 3,438 level after the NFP-induced bounce. If we get there, we can
expect the sellers to step in around the resistance once again with a defined
risk above the level to position for a drop back into the 3,245 support. The
buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish
bets into a new all-time high.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a bit of a consolidation between the 3,349 and 3,385 level.
The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the rally into
the key resistance, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in
for a move back into the 3,245 support.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a break above the
3,385 level, while the sellers will likely continue to step in around these
levels to target a break below the 3,349 level and open the door for new lows. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures.
Watch the video below
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