The EURUSD began its upside move last Friday after finding support at the 100-day moving average, which served as a strong base for buyers. That momentum extended into this week, with the pair breaking above the 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement (1.1558) of the decline from the July high. The bullish move continued past the 50% midpoint at 1.16098, confirming increased control by buyers.
On Thursday, the pair peaked just shy of 1.1700, a natural resistance level, before pulling back to retest the 50% retracement. Buyers held that line, reinforcing the bullish bias. While Friday’s high fell short of Thursday’s peak, the higher low kept buyers in the game and set the stage for a key test early next week.
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From a technical standpoint:
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A break below the 100-hour moving average (1.16156) and the 50% retracement (1.16098) would be needed to shift the bias back toward the downside and disappoint bulls.
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Conversely, holding above those levels and pushing through the 61.8% retracement at 1.16815 would open the door for a retest of 1.1700, followed by the July highs at 1.1787 and 1.18289 as bullish target.
The video above outlines the key levels and explains all the “whys” for the key levels.
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