The EURUSD has slipped to a new session low, pulling back toward the 50% retracement of the move down from the July 1 high, which comes in at 1.16098. This level sits at the lower end of a key swing area that extends up to 1.1631. The pair is currently trading between these two levels, around 1.16219, as traders weigh the next directional move.
Buyers should lean against the 50% retracement on the first look. If so look for them to push the price back above 1.1631,, and that would open the door for a rebound toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.16615, reinforcing bullish momentum in the short term.
A break below the 50% level I would expect disappointment from the buyers and a shift of the focus toward the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.1589. Further downside momentum could bring the 200-hour moving average at 1.15487 back into play—particularly relevant since the pair based near that level yesterday before launching its most recent rally.
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