USDCAD backpedals after failed ceiling break; 200-hour MA retest in focus

The USDCAD is under pressure in trading today after buyers missed their opportunity to hold the breakout above a key ceiling area during yesterday’s trade. The high yesterday extended to 1.3773, moving above the 1.37498–1.3759 resistance zone, but failed to sustain the breakout, triggering a reversal lower.

Earlier in the week, the pair had based against support near 1.3667, a level defined by Monday/Tuesday’s lows and a prior swing low from Friday, July 11, reinforcing its importance. The midweek rebound stalled near the 200-hour moving average, but buyers held their ground until the failed upside push. Keep that swing level in mind going forward.

Now, the pair is retesting that same (and higher) 200-hour MA (currently near 1.3699) — a pivotal barometer for both sides. A break below it with momentum and the nearby 38.2% retracement of the July range at 1.3682 would tilt the bias more bearish and shift the focus back toward the 1.3664–1.3669 support zone.

A bounce here, however, keeps the short-term bias neutral-to-positive, with buyers needing to reclaim the 1.3711–1.3715 zone which includes the swing area up to 1.3711 and the 100 hour moving average at 1.37153.

Key levels summary:

• Support

  • 1.3699 – 200-hour MA (key intraday barometer)

  • 1.3682 – 38.2% of July range

  • 1.3664–1.36697 – Weekly lows and 50% midpoint

• Close Resistance

  • 1.3711–1.3715 – high of the swing area and the 100 hour moving average

  • Move above the 100 hour moving average and stay above would target 1.3730 (swing low and swing high from earlier today)

  • 1.3749 – 1.3759. Swing area near the extreme high reached yesterday at 1.3773

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